A look back on the first
year of racing over the Polytrack course at Kranji has more than
reaffirmed its positioning as a fair and competitive alternative
surface to the turf track.
Useful
statistics such as winning barrier positions, track bias and
trainers’ and jockeys’ strike rates compiled from the 359 races
held since its launch on October 4, 2008 all point to a
“punter-friendly” synthetic track.
Its winning favourite
strike rate of 29%, which is well within the accepted global norm
of 30%, certainly attests to that.
But perhaps
of greater significance from a competitive perspective are the
track bias readings and barrier statistics, and how they measure up
against turf readings.
The results were compelling. Not only did winners come through from
all positions, both in the barriers and in the running, but the
readings were almost on par with turf readings over the same period
of time, certainly putting Polytrack in good stead as the “next
best thing” to grass.
For
example, 55% of runners in first, second or third spot (on-pacers)
at the 400m ended up as winners on Polytrack, which compares well
with turf’s 50%. The now-defunct Fibresand, which the Polytrack
replaced, then showed 79% based on the same one-year period, an
indication of clear leader bias.
Backmarkers
are not to be ruled out on Polytrack, with a sound 15% of winners
having come from a rearward position, a nod to the purported fact
it throws less “kickback”, which means horses
are less hesitant to race close together.
However,
the reading is still not as high as 21% for turf, but is by far
better than Fibresand’s very low 2%. Track bias remains a tricky
issue, though, with other factors like track tightness and camber
also coming into play.
Finishes
were as tight as those on turf as well. The average beaten margin
between the winner and the fourth horse was 3.84 lengths for
Polytrack and only 0.5 lengths shorter for turf. Fibresand races
conversely averaged 5.18 lengths.
While the
general belief tends to favour horses drawn on the inside for
sprint races, the results for Polytrack seem to give every runner
an even chance no matter where it breaks from.
For
example, out of 10 possible alleys – 1 to 10 and above – the
winners have been coming from across the board at virtually equal
strike rates in both sprint and longer races. 7% of horses drawn in
marble one won in a Polytrack sprint race, but 10% drawn in six, or
11% drawn in 9, were just as successful.
Turf
readings display a similar pattern, but gallopers drawn out on turf
actually fared worse from gate No 9 as only 6% won.
Similarly
over staying races, 10% of horses drawn in gate No 1 won, 6% drawn
in six, and 9% drawn in 9, got up, though the turf readings for
outside barriers were better at 11% and 10% for barriers 6 and 9
respectively.
Fibresand
again showed skewed readings with gates 1 and 2 providing 36% of
the winners between them, meaning one in ever three runners won
jumping from either barrier No 1 or 2.
Most Kranji
trainers have adapted fairly well to the Polytrack since its
introduction, with only three trainers still waiting to open their
accounts.
At the top
of the heap, South African Patrick Shaw boasts the highest success
rate. From 191 runners thus far, 37 have won and 86 finished in the
placings giving him a win and place strike rate of 19% and 45%
respectively.
Desmond Koh
is next best with Polytrack gallopers, with 29 wins and 80 placings
from 241 runners. Other notable performers are Michael Freedman and
Douglas Dragon, who despite saddling fewer runners, score high
strike rates on 16% and 14% respectively.
Shaw’s
fellow South African and stable jockey Robbie Fradd is
unsurprisingly also the punters’ pal in Polytrack races. He has
booted home 34 winners and 74 placings from 162 rides for a strike
rate of 21%, a percentage he shares with Olivier Doleuze, though
the latter rode only for a limited time in August when the turf
track was closed for resurfacing.
John Powell
and Saimee Jumaat are the other leading hoops with a sound
Polytrack record, making up the leading trio with 32 wins and 30
wins respectively.
In terms of
breeding, the leading sire of Polytrack winners is Stravinsky,
mainly through the deeds of Tuxedo Moon, who alone snared five of
the nine wins attributed to his progeny. Argentinian stallion Pure
Prize scored the highest strike rate on 40%, mainly through the
eight wins racked up by Dr Lemon (3), Renixus (2), Prinzio (2) and
British Navy (1).
Polytrack
has been a boon to horses, trainers, jockeys and owners alike, and
with 29% of favourites hitting the line first, punters’ pockets
won’t be hurt either. With such high scores achieved at only its
first year, Polytrack is in for the long run in
Singapore.
|